The Middle East is once again at the center of a high-stakes power struggle, and this time, the UAE is playing a pivotal role in reshaping the region’s future. But here’s where it gets controversial: while the West aims to reclaim its influence in Iraq, its efforts are deeply intertwined with a broader strategy to counter Iran’s dominance—a move that could reignite old tensions and spark new rivalries. So, how exactly is the UAE helping Western oil and gas giants return to Iraq, and what does this mean for the global balance of power?**
In recent months, the West’s push to reassert its presence in Mesopotamia—the geographical and geopolitical heart of the Middle East—has entered a critical phase. Major U.S. and European oil and gas companies are returning to Iraq after years of absence, driven by a shared goal: to sever Iraq’s deep-rooted ties with Iran. Tehran has long wielded influence over its neighbor through political, economic, and military proxies, but the West aims to shift the regional power dynamics back in its favor. This isn’t just about Iraq; it’s about countering the growing clout of China and Russia, which have similarly entrenched themselves in Iran and Iraq. In the zero-sum game of Middle Eastern geopolitics, control over the world’s largest oil and gas reserves—and the strategic land bridge between global power blocs—is at stake. However, the West’s troubled history in the region, particularly its military interventions in Iraq, means it needs the tacit support of other Middle Eastern nations to succeed. Enter the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
And this is the part most people miss: the UAE’s role isn’t just about economic partnerships; it’s about strategically aligning with the West to reshape the region’s future. Over the past few weeks, UAE-based firms Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum announced the start of gas sales from the Khor Mor gas expansion project in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region (KRI). This project, part of the Pearl Petroleum consortium, is a game-changer. With a combined 35% stake, Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum lead the consortium, which also includes Austria’s OMV, Hungary’s MOL, and Germany’s RWE, each holding 10%. The Khor Mor site’s ‘KM250’ project, completed eight months ahead of schedule, adds 250 million standard cubic feet per day (MMscf/d) of gas capacity, bringing the total output to 750 MMscf/d. It also produces 7,000 barrels per day of condensate and 460 tonnes per day of liquefied petroleum gas, significantly boosting previous levels. Currently, the Khor Mor site meets around 80% of the KRI’s power needs. The project’s $1.1 billion financing came from the UAE’s Bank of Sharjah, a $350 million bond from Pearl Petroleum, and the U.S. Development Finance Corporation. Notably, just a day before this announcement, Iraq’s Federal Government (FGI) welcomed senior officials from the UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) to discuss investment opportunities in the country’s oil and gas sector. ADNOC expressed interest in exploration, production, refining, and petrochemicals, while Crescent Petroleum signed three 20-year contracts for fields in Diyala and Basra provinces.
Boosting the KRI’s gas and oil output is a linchpin in the West’s strategy to foster greater cooperation between Baghdad and the KRI, a region with which the U.S. and U.K. have long-standing ties. The ultimate goal? To sever the KRI’s links with Chinese, Russian, and Iranian companies tied to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. But here’s the twist: the U.S. and Israel also see the KRI as a strategic base for monitoring Iran, a move that directly contradicts China and Russia’s interests. As a senior energy source close to Iran’s Petroleum Ministry told OilPrice.com, ‘By keeping the West out of energy deals in Iraq, the end of Western hegemony in the Middle East will become the decisive chapter in the West’s final demise.’
Since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, the superpower battle for influence has unfolded in three distinct phases. Initially, Western oil and gas firms invested heavily to cement their presence, leveraging their legal right to secure operations with private security forces and infrastructure projects. Chinese and Russian firms were also present but initially kept a low profile, with China favoring ‘work-only’ contracts over high-profile projects. The second phase began after the U.S. withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, allowing Tehran to expand its influence. This led many Western firms to exit Iraq due to rising corruption. The third phase emerged under Donald Trump’s presidency, whose polarizing approach seemingly clarified the geopolitical outlook for many Middle Eastern nations.
For Washington, the UAE’s alignment with this strategy is crucial. Under former President Joe Biden, the UAE’s actions—such as allowing China to build a suspected military facility in Khalifa Port and refusing Biden’s urgent call during the Ukraine crisis—raised concerns. However, recent indications suggest the UAE is now more aligned with Trump’s ‘relationship normalisation’ model, exemplified by its signing of the Abraham Accord with Israel in 2020. This shift not only bolsters the West’s Middle East strategy but also supports Washington’s efforts to position India as a counterweight to China in the Asia-Pacific region.
Here’s the burning question: As the UAE deepens its ties with the West, will this alignment alienate other regional players, or will it pave the way for a new era of cooperation? And what does this mean for the future of Iraq, caught in the crossfire of global superpowers? Share your thoughts in the comments—this is a conversation that demands your voice.
